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Well, the NOGAPS models are now showing Sunday to be clear of rain.

Sunday rain forecast

Looks like the local weatherman was correct (more so) than the all powerful Navy forecast system. The local weatherman said “Rain on Tuesday” a couple of days ago while NOGAPS kept saying Sunday. Now NOGAPS says “rain on Tuesday”.

The Shame, the Embarrassment. We’ve been shown up by a tv weatherman.

Tuesday night (00Z Wednesday is about 5pm Tuesday local)

Here is the KSBW Ch8 idiot icon for the 7 day forecast. Rain Tuesday night.

KSBW 7 Day Forecast

Update: You will be pleased to know I walked down the hallway and gave Dr Tim Hogan a ration of crap over his NOGAPS model getting it wrong. Dr Hogan writes and maintains NOGAPS for NRL (The Naval Research Labs). His response? “I know! I know! I saw that. Go away!” Being the kind hearted person that I am, no laughing!, I offered him more run time on Emerald so that he could “improve” his model. 🙂 I’m so mean.

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According to NOAAGlobal Temps Push Last Month to Hottest March on Record

Must be global warming! We’re all gonna dieeeeee!!!

Oh wait. Uhm, maybe not. This year has been a strong El Nino year. Which causes the ocean temps to rise, thus causing the global temp anomalies to be high. Remember 1998? More information on the El Nino can be found here.

Now for some fun. The Telegraph came up with this chart that I like. It shows the difference in opinions when it comes to historical temperature trends. The famous Mann Hockey stick vs what some say is reality.

Battle of the Graphs

Now what’s interesting is how different the two charts are. Notice how 2000 is nice and warm. It shows 1998 as the hottest year on record, some say, others say 1934. Depends on how you twist the data. Notice also how Mann’s hockey stick removed the Medieval Warm Period and shows 1934 as barely a warming blip.  Read more on the 1934 vs 1988 hottest year debate here.

But wait, you might say. The bottom chart definitely shows 1050 to about 1350 as definitely hotter than the “modern” warming. (We can ignore the Mann Hockey Stick as being nothing more than the fiction it is.) This is the Medieval Warm Period I just mentioned above. Now, here’s where people have fun. And twist the crap out of the data. If you read the full quote, they aren’t lying, per se. The catch is the term “On Record“. What record might that be? Why the record from 1880 onward. Yes, 1880, that nice cool period in our past.  In fact, here’s a blow up of that period. From the Red arrow until the present. That”s the “Record”. I think they should have tried to wrangle the temps from about 1680 onward. Now THAT would have shown some serious “We’re all gonna die!!!!” warming. All caused by CO2 of course.

Anyhow. The reason 1880 is used is that it’s the coldest point where the “instrumental temperature began” The record actual begins in about 1850, but that was a warm blip. Charts are more impressive if you start in 1880, the cold blip. So, are they telling the truth? Sure. Are they telling the whole truth? Hell no.

I like this one too,  “Each of the last 12 years (1997-2008) was one of the warmest on record”, again, truthful, if you only look at the last 130 years. Also ignoring the 1930’s warming. That darn blip of warming everyone loves to ignore.

Okay. Enough ranting about Lies, Damn Lies, and Global Warming.

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