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Well, as most people know, I work at FNMOC, which among other things, does weather modeling for the Navy. You would not believe the amount of crap I get when I don’t have a clue about what the weather is going to be, or even that there is a weather advisory currently happening.

I build the computers the Numerical Weather Models are run on. I don’t run the models, heck, most times I don’t even bother looking at them.

Well, since The Good Old Days festivities were cut short because of rain I decided to check out the weather for this upcoming weekend to see if there would be rain for the 20th annual Sea Otter Classic. Window of interest is 4-6 days out from now, ie the weekend. So far we’re looking okay. First significant rain event should hit around 144 hours from now, or Sunday morning, with rain continuing on Monday. Hopefully it won’t be too much rain on Sunday. Looks like mainly 20% chance or so.

Here’s what Friday looks like. Dry over the Monterey area. FYI. Purple is a 20% or so chance of rain, light blue is up to 50% chance of rain. Black is no rain chance.

North American Precip 96 hrs out (Friday afternoon)

Sunday morning we’re predicting rain to arrive. Roughly a 20-30% chance.

North American Precip 144 hrs out. (Sunday Morning)

And continuing through Monday with a 50-60% chance of the wet stuff.

North American Precip 168 hrs out (Monday Afternoon)

So, that’s the FNMOC Ensemble forecast for 6-7 days out. I guess we’ll just have to see how good it is by waiting 6-7 days. 🙂


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