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Not that the Greenie Alarmists won’t come up with some new “the world is going to end because……” theme.

But “The world is going to end because the poles are melting and we’re all going to drown and those poor cuddly polar bears are gonna die” theme is pretty much debunked. At least for the moment.

Arctic Sea Ice extent AND Sea Ice area are both at normal 1979-2010 averaged levels. This may be temporary, this may be permanent (the Antarctic has been above normal for quite some time already). Who knows? But, is it too much to hope for that the damn climate zealots might shut up for a while? I know, I know, it’s probably too much to ask for.

Sea Ice Area April 29th 2010

Arctic Sea ice extent

Arctic Sea Ice Extent


Today I had the horrifying experience of changing out the wax seal under the toilet in the main bathroom.

The same toilet my daughters like to plug. After many many years of being there it finally let go and started to leak. Shortly there after it started to smell. So, instead of calling the land lady and having a plumber come out I decided, how hard can this be?

It’s not hard. In fact it’s a pretty straight forward process, physically. But once that toilet came up and I saw the grey slime/poop that had oozed around under there. The horrifying sight/smell was enough to convince me never, ever, to be a plumber. Not going to happen! I ended up having to use a scraper to clean the tile up under where the toilet had been, dropping the nastiness down the conveniently located open sewer hole 12 inches in front of my face. After that it was the bleach spray and paper towels.

Then, of course, the darn wax gasket wasn’t tall enough so I had to go get another one and stack them up to get it to work and seal.

Well, it doesn’t leak and doesn’t smell. However I’ve thrown away 2 towels, washed my hands a half dozen times (and I was wearing rubber gloves!), changed my clothes, and promised myself I would never chew my nails again.

Moral of the story. Hire a damn plumber!

Chris Spillman, of the Seattle band Wren Drive, came down with Lane and Jacob and played some tunes. One of the tunes he played was an old Dave Matthews song called Grave Digger. I think it was one of my favorites that he sang.

When you dig my grave
Could you make it shallow
So that I can feel the rain

It had an eerie surreal quality to it with his voice.

From 2010 Adventures

As a side note. While extremely hung over and preparing for a 19 hour drive back to Seattle, the Fifth of Whiskey in his luggage shattered and soaked all his clothes in the wonderfully nauseating and overpowering smell (with a hangover) of whiskey.

Nora and Jacob decided to try some unusual musical jamming while Lane watched and critiqued. ๐Ÿ™‚

From 2010 Adventures
From 2010 Adventures

Sometimes the simplest words have new meaning when you’re dealing with Cancer.

My buddy Darrin spent a week with us. He lives in Tennessee now. He left this morning and plans on coming back in late July for the MotoGP races at Laguna Seca.

Anyhow, his last words to Roberta as we left the house for the airport this morning.

“Be here when I get back.”

The boys of the TapHandles showed up and spent the weekend with us. Wow did we have a blast. It’s going to take a few days worth of blogging to get caught up. Stories to expect soon.

  • Shirtless Chris
  • Drunken Cab driver
  • One hell of a house party
  • rocking at Jose’s Underground
  • the Boudoir at the East Village Coffee Lounge
  • Shattering the whisky bottle
  • music, music, and more music. 3 bands worth.
From 2010 Adventures

Well, the NOGAPS models are now showing Sunday to be clear of rain.

Sunday rain forecast

Looks like the local weatherman was correct (more so) than the all powerful Navy forecast system. The local weatherman said “Rain on Tuesday” a couple of days ago while NOGAPS kept saying Sunday. Now NOGAPS says “rain on Tuesday”.

The Shame, the Embarrassment. We’ve been shown up by a tv weatherman.

Tuesday night (00Z Wednesday is about 5pm Tuesday local)

Here is the KSBW Ch8 idiot icon for the 7 day forecast. Rain Tuesday night.

KSBW 7 Day Forecast

Update: You will be pleased to know I walked down the hallway and gave Dr Tim Hogan a ration of crap over his NOGAPS model getting it wrong. Dr Hogan writes and maintains NOGAPS for NRL (The Naval Research Labs). His response? “I know! I know! I saw that. Go away!” Being the kind hearted person that I am, no laughing!, I offered him more run time on Emerald so that he could “improve” his model. ๐Ÿ™‚ I’m so mean.

According to NOAAGlobal Temps Push Last Month to Hottest March on Record

Must be global warming! We’re all gonna dieeeeee!!!

Oh wait. Uhm, maybe not. This year has been a strong El Nino year. Which causes the ocean temps to rise, thus causing the global temp anomalies to be high. Remember 1998? More information on the El Nino can be found here.

Now for some fun. The Telegraph came up with this chart that I like. It shows the difference in opinions when it comes to historical temperature trends. The famous Mann Hockey stick vs what some say is reality.

Battle of the Graphs

Now what’s interesting is how different the two charts are. Notice how 2000 is nice and warm. It shows 1998 as the hottest year on record, some say, others say 1934. Depends on how you twist the data. Notice also how Mann’s hockey stick removed the Medieval Warm Period and shows 1934 as barely a warming blip.ย  Read more on the 1934 vs 1988 hottest year debate here.

But wait, you might say. The bottom chart definitely shows 1050 to about 1350 as definitely hotter than the “modern” warming. (We can ignore the Mann Hockey Stick as being nothing more than the fiction it is.) This is the Medieval Warm Period I just mentioned above. Now, here’s where people have fun. And twist the crap out of the data. If you read the full quote, they aren’t lying, per se. The catch is the term “On Record“. What record might that be? Why the record from 1880 onward. Yes, 1880, that nice cool period in our past.ย  In fact, here’s a blow up of that period. From the Red arrow until the present. That”s the “Record”. I think they should have tried to wrangle the temps from about 1680 onward. Now THAT would have shown some serious “We’re all gonna die!!!!” warming. All caused by CO2 of course.

Anyhow. The reason 1880 is used is that it’s the coldest point where the “instrumental temperature began” The record actual begins in about 1850, but that was a warm blip. Charts are more impressive if you start in 1880, the cold blip. So, are they telling the truth? Sure. Are they telling the whole truth? Hell no.

I like this one too,ย  “Each of the last 12 years (1997-2008) was one of the warmest on record”, again, truthful, if you only look at the last 130 years. Also ignoring the 1930’s warming. That darn blip of warming everyone loves to ignore.

Okay. Enough ranting about Lies, Damn Lies, and Global Warming.

Still wondering if it’s going to rain on us at the Sea Otter Classic. Well, looking at the NOGAPS, or Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, model today makes Sunday seem better. Looks like sometime between noon Sunday and midnight Sunday night the rains will come. The NOGAPS models are easier to read visually than the Ensemble forecast. Pretty pictures are better. ๐Ÿ™‚

Nogaps Forecaste 120 hrs out

NOGAPS model 120 hrs out

NOGAPS model 132 hrs out.

Well, as most people know, I work at FNMOC, which among other things, does weather modeling for the Navy. You would not believe the amount of crap I get when I don’t have a clue about what the weather is going to be, or even that there is a weather advisory currently happening.

I build the computers the Numerical Weather Models are run on. I don’t run the models, heck, most times I don’t even bother looking at them.

Well, since The Good Old Days festivities were cut short because of rain I decided to check out the weather for this upcoming weekend to see if there would be rain for the 20th annual Sea Otter Classic. Window of interest is 4-6 days out from now, ie the weekend. So far we’re looking okay. First significant rain event should hit around 144 hours from now, or Sunday morning, with rain continuing on Monday. Hopefully it won’t be too much rain on Sunday. Looks like mainly 20% chance or so.

Here’s what Friday looks like. Dry over the Monterey area. FYI. Purple is a 20% or so chance of rain, light blue is up to 50% chance of rain. Black is no rain chance.

North American Precip 96 hrs out (Friday afternoon)

Sunday morning we’re predicting rain to arrive. Roughly a 20-30% chance.

North American Precip 144 hrs out. (Sunday Morning)

And continuing through Monday with a 50-60% chance of the wet stuff.

North American Precip 168 hrs out (Monday Afternoon)

So, that’s the FNMOC Ensemble forecast for 6-7 days out. I guess we’ll just have to see how good it is by waiting 6-7 days. ๐Ÿ™‚

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